Oscar Nomination Predictions

If today's Barack inauguration weren't enough excitement for one week, we have the 2008 Oscar nominations to add some much needed thrills into this cold icky January.  The nominations are announced on Thursday morning at 8:38 am.  

As some of you may know I have been fairly intensely obsessed with this event (far more than the actual awards or ceremony) since 1988. Over the past few years, my interest in mainstream film releases has remained steady, while my passion for truly independent and foreign cinema has deepened. 

I read recently that Scorsese defended the Oscars awarded to Dances With Wolves over his Goodfellas; his point was that the Oscars are a celebration of mainstream success.  

It's very refreshing when a few bona fide artistic achievements break through into the masses. I'm hopeful we will see some of my favorite films of 2008 acknowledged in the nominations. It's tricky trying to remain objective with predictions, but I will try my darndest.  

Predictions below;

BEST PICTURE

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Frost/Nixon

Milk

Slumdog Millionaire

Wall-E has a slim chance of getting in, but I can't imagine what flick it would kick out.  My hope would be a Ben Button "snub," but Milk is probably most vulnerable.

My favorite film of 2008 was Synecdoche, New York.

BEST ACTRESS

Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married

Sally Hawkins in Happy Go Lucky

Melissa Leo in Frozen River

Meryl Streep in Doubt

Kate Winslet in Revolutionary Road

Angelina Jolie could sneak in for her lovely performance in Changeling.  Leo is vulnerable but VERY well-regarded by her peers.  Some voters may respond to Jolie's star power as well as her snub in 07 for another terrific performance in A Mighty Heart. The other possibility is the exclusion of Streep. No one can really imagine that happening cause, well, she is Meryl, but at the same time, it's far from her best work and these other women are more deserving.  If Meryl does get in, it's her 15th nomination.

Sally Hawkins work in Happy Go Lucky was my favorite performance in ANY category this year.  I will be bummed if this film and her astonishing work are dissed.

BEST ACTOR

Clint Eastwood in Gran Torino

Richard Jenkins in The Visitor

Frank Langella in Frost/Nixon

Sean Penn in Milk

Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler

Rourke (my favorite), Penn and Langella are definite nominees. Brad Pitt could easily get nominated instead of Jenkins or Eastwood. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams in Doubt

Penelope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Viola Davis in Doubt

Marisa Tomei in The Wrestler

Kate Winslet in The Reader

Wouldn't be shocked to see Taraji B. Henson acknowledged for her BUTTON crap, pushing Adams or Tomei out.  I loved Cruz, Davis, Adams and Tomei but have a special place reserved for Samantha Morton's unfuckingbelievable performance in Synecdoche, New York.  If it were up to me, this category would have at least ten nominees each year. This year most of those women would be Synecdoche cast members.  What happened to all the buzz for Debra Winger and Rosemary DeWitt for Rachel Getting Married?  Wouldn't mind a surprise nom for those lovely ladies.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Josh Brolin in Milk

Robert Downey Jr. in Tropic Thunder

Philip Seymour Hoffman in Doubt

Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight

Dev Pattel in Slumdog Millionaire

I'm itching to put James Franco instead of Hoffman, but will stay safe.  

BEST DIRECTOR

David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight

Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon

Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire

Darren Aronofsky - The Wrestler

Getting the 5th slot for Best Director is always tricky. Best Picture and Best Director have matched perfectly 3 times total, and the Directors branch has a sneaky way of surprising all of us.  It wouldn't be shocking if this were a year with perfect matches, but I also think the Directors may want to show love for Mike Leigh, Woody Allen, Darren Aronofsky or even Andrew Stanton (Wall-E).  There is also the chance they will acknowledge The Class or Waltz With Bashir.  I'm hopeful for something unexpected and interesting.

If this is interesting to you people let me know and I'll continue with Screenplay, Score, Art Direction, etc...

Happy to hear anyone's thoughts, feelings and predictions.

Best, David