The current climate indicates a race between Streep (who is expected to receive nomination #15 for her silly but entertaining performance in Doubt) and Winslet (for Revolutionary Road). When push comes to shove and a nominating member looks at these options, I find it increasingly unlikely either of those performances will inspire a vote.
Everyone loves Streep and she has had a great year. She has at least 2 more Oscars in her future, and when the timing is right, she will win. Not gonna happen this year, for this particular role. Many people are frustrated that Winslet hasn't won yet. I am one of them, but the truth is she has yet to give the best performance of the year any of the times she was nominated. Her honor this year will be double nominations (supporting for The Reader), bringing her total to 7 before the age of 34.
Not that many people have seen Rachel Getting Married, but the ones who do tend to respond very passionately. There is a contingent of folks out there who don't like the movie, but most viewers go apeshit for Anne. She is a genuine movie star; gorgeous, intelligent, interesting - She balances big budget bullshit with interesting smaller character driven roles and is well-respected by her peers and audiences.
My favorite performance of the year was by Sally Hawkins in Happy Go Lucky. Moments ago, she won Best Actress at the National Society of Film Critics. She can add that to her citations from the LAFC and NYFCC. Hopefully, the Comedy/Musical Golden Globe goes her way next week as well. Even with all these awards under her belt, Sally is still not guaranteed an Oscar nomination. U.S.-centric SAG members ignored her performance for their nominations. I believe Sally will prevail and get nominated.
It will be interesting to see how the SAG and GG winners shape the rest of the contest. I think Hathaway's Oscar victory will be solidified after winning both of those precursors. Let's see!
Any thoughts? Feelings?
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I think that Sally Hawkins has nearly locked herself in for the Oscar nomination. LAFCA/NYFCC/NSFC is a rare and potent combination, and with probable Golden Globe and BAFTA? wins, she is looking safe. She'd win my vote for the year's performance, just edging out KST and Michelle Williams.
I really think that if La Streep wins that Golden Globe on Sunday, she'll start to build enough momentum that will thrust her towards her overdue third Oscar.
Anne ticks off all of the little boxes (moderate deglam, character=addict, usual box office draw, siren, young), but with the battling of the Overdue Ones, she'll have trouble getting traction. Add Bride Wars (her personal Norbit) into the mix and I'm worried for her.
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