Predix as of 12/5/09

Most likely Oscar nominees (as of 12/5/09). Will be interesting to see how Nine, The Lovely Bones and Avatar land over the next week or so...could be some significant changes. No matter how you look at it Best Picture feels real thin. There are some really outstanding performances in play this year, and it's exciting to think we could finally watch Jeff Bridges and Julianne Moore collect awards. The NY and LA critics awards are announced this week. Look out for them to pull some interesting surprise choices.

Best Picture

1. Up in the Air

2. Precious

3. Invictus

4. The Hurt Locker

5. Nine

6. Up

7. Inglorious Basterds

8. Avatar

9. Star Trek

10. An Education

11. Julie and Julia

Best Actress

1. Meryl Streep in Julie and Julia OR It's Complicated

2. Gabourey Sidibe in Precious

3. Helen Mirren in The Last Station

4. Carey Mulligan in An Education

5. Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side

6. Marion Cotilliard in Nine

Best Actor

1. George Clooney in Up in the Air

2. Morgan Freeman in Invictus

3. Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart

4. Colin Firth in A Single Man

5. Daniel Day Lewis in Nine

6. Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker

Best Supporting Actress

1. Monique in Precious

2. Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air

3. Julianne Moore in A Single Man

4. Judi Dench in Nine

5. Penelope Cruz in Nine

6. Mariah Carey in Precious

Best Supporting Actor

1. Christop Wentz in Inglorious Basterds

2. Stanley Tucci in Julie and Julia OR The Lovely Bones

3. Christopher Plummer in The Last Station

4. Matt Damon in Invictus

5. Woody Harrelson in The Messenger

6. Alfred Molina in An Education

Most nominations

most nominated LIVING/functioning actors:

1.

Meryl Streep - 15 (should go to 16 this yr!)

2.

Jack Nicholson - 12

3.

Al Pacino - 8

Peter O'Toole - 8

5.

Jane Fonda - 7

Dustin Hoffman - 7

7.

Michael Caine - 6

Robert DeNiro

Jessica Lange

Maggie Smith

Ellen Burstyn

Judi Dench

Robert Duvall

Vanessa Redgrave

Sissy Spacek

Kate Winslet

17.

Tom Hanks - 5

Sean Penn

Denzel Washington

Cate Blanchett

Shirley MacLaine

Sean Penn

Susan Sarandon

Glenn Close

Albert Finney

26.

Anthony Hopkins - 4

Emma Thompson

Daniel Day-Lewis

Jeff Bridges

Warren Beatty

Robin Williams

Jon Voight

Diane Keaton

Julianne Moore

Holly Hunter

36.

Marisa Tomei - 3

Tommy Lee Jones

Johnny Depp

Leonardo DiCaprio

Ben Kingsley

Russell Crowe

Geoffrey Rush

Tom Cruise

Dianne Wiest

Anjelica Huston

Julia Roberts

Joan Allen

Laura Linney

Renee Zellwger

Helen Mirren

Frances McDormand

Annette Bening

Kathy Bates

Best of 2000-2009

FILM:

Requiem for a Dream

Mulholland Drive

About Schmidt

There Will Be Blood

Far From Heaven

Inglorious Basterds

Brokeback Mountain

The Squid and the Whale

United 93

Pan's Labyrinth

Little Children

Lots of honorable mentions: Amelie, Wet Hot American Summer, Gosford Park, Up in the Air, City of God, The Departed, No Country for Old Men, LOTR trilogy, Letters from Iwo Jima, Chicago, Lost in Translation, Moulin Rouge, In the Mood for Love, Munich, Memento, The Hours, Dancer in the Dark, 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days, The Fantastic Mr. Fox, A History of Violence, Kill Bill Vol 1 and 2, Before Sunset, Hedwig and the Angry Inch, You Can Count on Me, Ratatouille, Michael Clayton, Y Tu Mama Tambien, Amores Perros, 25th Hour, Waltz with Bashir, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Punch Drunk Love, In America, In the Bedroom, etc etc.

Actress:

Ellen Burstyn in Requiem for a Dream

Naomi Watts in Mulholland Drive

Julianne Moore in Far From Heaven

Charlize Theron in Monster

Annette Bening in Being Julia

Helen Mirren in The Queen

Kate Winslet in Little Children

Imelda Staunton in Vera Drake

Sissy Spacek in In the Bedroom

plus Cate Blanchett, Meryl Streep and Kate Winslet in most of their 00's films.

Actor:

Jack Nicholson in About Schmidt

Heath Ledger in Brokeback Mountain

Daniel Day Lewis in There Will Be Blood

Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler

Sean Penn in Milk

John Cameron Mitchell in Hedwig and the Angry Inch

Forest Whitaker in The Last King of Scotland

Philip Seymour Hoffman in Capote

Tom Hanks in Cast Away

Nicolas Cage in Adaptation

Supporting Actress:

Jennifer Connelly in Requiem for a Dream

Tilda Swinton in Michael Clayton

Meryl Streep in Adaptation

Patricia Clarkson in Far from Heaven

Virgina Madsen in Sideways

Cate Blanchett in The Aviator

Cate Blanchett in I'm Not There

Penelope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Helen Mirren in Gosford Park

Holly Hunter in Thirteen

Supporting Actor

Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight

Christop Wentz in Inglorious Basterds

Javier Bardem in No Country for Old Men

Dennis Quaid in Far From Heaven

William Hurt in A History of Violence

Chris Cooper in Adaptation

Benicio del Toro in Traffic

Paul Giamatti in Cinderella Man

Jackie Earl Haley in Little Children

Jim Broadbent in Iris

Bullock for Best Actress?

The Oscar website I love and trust the most (In Contention) has moved Sandra Bullock into their Best Actress predictions for The Blind Side.

Most people agree that 4 of the slots are already taken (Meryl Streep, Gaby Sidibe, Carey Mulligan, Helen Mirren) and that the 5th is up for grabs. For a long time, Abbie Cornish had a leg up on the competition but people overall are apathetic towards Bright Star, so her odds are waning.

Other possibilities for the 5th slot include:

Michelle Pfeiffer for Cheri (I'd like to see this happen. She was lovely)

Marion Cotilliard for Nine (feels like a supporting role, but the studio is pushing for lead)

Maggie Gyllenhaal for Crazy Heart (same)

Saoirse Ronan in The Lovely Bones

The Golden Globes should help figure this out, because some interesting things will happen in the comedy/musical category. Bullock should expect 2 Globe noms this year (Drama for Blind Side and Comedy for The Proposal, although I really think they should reverse the categories. I didn't laugh once during The Proposal and Blind Side looks totally fuckin hysterical. I'm hopeful for a Zooey Deschanel nom for (500) Days @ The Globes, but don't think that will get her the Oscar slot.

Ultimately, the Bullock argument makes the most sense to me at the moment. Blech.

New York Film Critics Circle Predictions

National Board of Review announces its winners on 12/3, but they are hard to predict and although their choices ultimately do matter (Slumdog won last year), I just can't get emotionally invested.

My predictions for the NYFCC awards, which happen the following week (12/10 I believe) follow:

Picture: A Serious Man seems like a very NY choice. I could also see Inglorious winning. It will not be Invictus, Precious, Up, Nine or The Lovely Bones.

Actress: NY went apeshit for Carey Mulligan in An Education. If it's not her, it will be some random totally outside the box person like Tilda Swinton (who have an amazing performance in the movie Julie released earlier this year).

Actor: Colin Firth in A Single Man. Jeff Bridges is winning the Oscar for Crazy Heart.

Supporting Actress: Monique, right? Although the NY critics are obsessed with their hometown darling Julianne Moore and I suspect they are gonna have a love affair with A Single Man (Best Debut Film, or whatever they call that category). The NYFCC doesn't like to be predictable and there will certainly be a Precious backlash sometime over the next few months. Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air also has a large fanbase. At this point, my favorite supporting actress of the year is Melanie Laurent in Inglorious Basterds.

Supporting Actor: Christop Wentz in Inglorious Basterds. I would bet $ on this.

Director: Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker. Would it be the first time a woman has won Best Director in NY? I believe so. This award could also go to Q.T.

Screenplay: A Serious Man or (500) Days of Summer

Cinematography: Going out on a limb with Nine. Inglorious and Bright Star are contenders as well.

David Krasner

krasner@the-mine.com

An Educated Stab at 2009 Oscar Predix

Picture

AN EDUCATION

AVATAR

THE HURT LOCKER

INGLORIOUS BASTERDS

THE LAST STATION

THE LOVELY BONES

NINE

PRECIOUS

UP

UP IN THE AIR

Actress

Abbie Cornish

Helen Mirren

Carey Mulligan

Gabourey Sidibe

Meryl Streep

Actor

George Clooney

Daniel Day-Lewis

Colin Firth

Morgan Freeman

JHal Holbrook

Supporting Actress

Penelope Cruz

Judi Dench

Anna Kendrick

Monique

Julianne Moore

Supporting Actor

Matt Damon

Jude Law

Alfred Molina

Stanley Tucci

Christoph Wentz

10 NOMINEES

So, let's say there were 10 nominees for the past 20 yrs or so.

Here's my theory which OTHER films would have been nominated (in order of likelihood)

2008

The Dark Knight

Wall-E

The Wrestler

Gran Torino

Vicky Cristina Barcelona

2007

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Into the Wild

American Gangster

Ratatouille

Sweeney Todd

2006

Dreamgirls

United 93

Pan's Labyrinth

Flags of Our Fathers

Little Children

2005

A History of Violence

The Constant Gardener

King Kong

Pride and Prejudice

Match Point

2004

Kinsey

The Incredibles

Harry Potter/Azkaban

Collateral

Closer

2003

Cold Mountain

The Last Samurai

21 Grams

Something's Gotta Give

House of Sand and Fog

2002 (This is the kind of year where 10 nominees made sense)

Far From Heaven

Catch Me if You Can

The Quiet American

About Schmidt

Adaptation

2001

Amelie

Black Hawk Down

A.I.

Mulholland Drive

Iris

2000

Billy Elliot

Almost Famous

Dancer in the Dark

Cast Away

Oh Brother, Where Are Thou?

1999

Topsy Turvy

Being John Malkovich

Magnolia

The Talented Mr. Ripley

The Iron Giant

1998

Gods and Monsters

The Truman Show

Pleasantville

Primary Colors

Rushmore

1997

Boogie Nights

The Sweet Hereafter

The Ice Storm

Men in Black

Donnie Brasco

1996

Evita

The People vs. Larry Flynt

Sling Blade

The Birdcage

Lone Star

1995

Leaving Las Vegas

Dead Man Walking

The American President

Toy Story

Nixon

1994

The Madness of King George

Bullets Over Broadway

The Lion King

Ed Wood

Little Women

1993

The Age of Innocence

Jurassic Park

Short Cuts

Philadelphia

The Joy Luck Club

1992

The Player

Enchanted April

Malcolm X

Aladdin

Chaplin

1991

Thelma and Louise

The Fisher King

Boyz n the Hood

Hook

Grand Canyon

1990

Reversal of Fortune

The Grifters

Green Card

Avalon

Dick Tracy

1989

Glory

Crimes and Misdemeanors

Do the Right Thing

Enemies, A Love Story

Batman

1988

Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

A Fish Called Wanda

Gorillas in the Mist

The Unbearable Lightness of Being

Running on Empty

1987

Empire of the Sun

The Untouchables

Full Metal Jacket

Good Morning Vietnam

Radio Days

1986

Stand by Me

The Color of Money

Aliens

Blue Velvet

Hoosiers

1985

Cocoon

Ran

Back to the Future

Agnes of God

The Purple Rose of Cairo

1984

Ghostbusters

Once Upon a Time in America

Greystroke

The Cotton Club

Broadway Danny Rose

1983

Yentl

Silkwood

Fanny and Alexander

Return of the Jedi

Educating Rita

1982

Victor/Victoria

An Officer and a Gentleman

Sophie's Choice

The World According to Garp

Annie

Thoughts? Reactions? Disputes? Comments? More?

2009 Flix

My 10 most anticipated film releases of 2009:

PUBLIC ENEMIES Directed by Michael Mann starring Johnny Depp, Christian Bale, Marion Cotilliard and Billy Crudup.

Spike Jonze's WHERE THE WILD THINGS ARE

Scorsese's SHUTTER ISLAND

Rob Marshall's NINE

Ang Lee's TAKING WOODSTOCK

Woody Allen's WHATEVER WORKS

Pedro Almodovar's BROKEN EMBRACES

Peter Jackson's THE LOVELY BONES

Sam Mendes' AWAY WE GO starring John Krasinski

Steven Soderberg's THE INFORMANT with Matt Damon

Frozen River

Frozen River = good movie. Melissa Leo = wonderful performance.  I'm rooting for her to win Best Actress next week.  

Also, I'm in the midst of watching KLUTE. Jane Fonda's performance and Gordon Willis' cinematography are incredible.

Bi.

Fucked Up

I've been kinda bummed about this year's Oscar nominations, but you know what, they pretty much always suck. I just haven't been as immersed in the process as I was this season.

Here is a look back at some of the sillier nominees from 2000-2007;

2000

Gladiator won Best Picture, Actor and Director. Almost Famous, Billy Elliot and Requiem for a Dream weren't nominated.

2001

Naomi Watts snubbed for Mulholland Drive. 

A Beautiful Mind was nominated for and won multiple awards including Best Picture, Director and Supporting Actress.

2002

John C. Reilly nominated for Chicago. Dennis Quaid NOT nominated for Far From Heaven.

4 nominations for Far From Heaven instead of the 10 or so it deserved.

Adaptation nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay. I get this on some level, but really? Really? 

2003

Best Picture nominees include Master and Commander AND Seabiscuit. Seriously. Rough year.

2004

Jamie Foxx nominated for his "supporting" work in Collateral.  Remember? He won Best Actor for Ray. 

2005

A really healthy year with the notable exception of Crash beating BB Mountain.

Reese Witherspoon's Best Actress for Walk the Line is weird and she hasn't followed up with ANYTHING interesting yet, but when you look back at her competition, it's hard to make serious arguments.  

2006

No real complaints! Would prefer Little Children nominated instead of Little Miss Sunshine.

2007

Nice group.

REALLY cool nominations during that time;

2001

David Lynch - Mulholland Drive - Director

Ghost World for Adapted Screenplay

2002

Y Tu Mama Tambien for Original Screenplay

2003

The Triplets of Belleville - Animated Film

2004

The Village - Best Score

Before Sunset - Adapted Screenplay

2005

William Hurt for A History of Violence - S. Actor

Paradise Now for Foreign Film

The Squid and The Whale - original screenplay

2006

Paul Greengrass as Best Director for United 93

all the awards for pan's labyrinth (art direction, cinematography, makeup)

2007

4 great performances in very indie films;

Viggo Mortensen for Eastern Promises

Casey Affleck for Jesse James

Laura Linney for The Savages

Cate Blanchett for I'm Not There

3:13AM!

Boy A

Boy A is a terrific movie about a 24 yr old released from prison many years after committing a gruesome crime.  It's available for rental.  Enjoy!  

New York Times

Rooms is opening up Off Broadway starring Doug Kreeger and Leslie Kritzer. New York Times announces dates at the attached artsblog.

http://artsbeat.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/25/in-the-wings-2/