Most people agree that 4 of the slots are already taken (Meryl Streep, Gaby Sidibe, Carey Mulligan, Helen Mirren) and that the 5th is up for grabs. For a long time, Abbie Cornish had a leg up on the competition but people overall are apathetic towards Bright Star, so her odds are waning.
Other possibilities for the 5th slot include:
Michelle Pfeiffer for Cheri (I'd like to see this happen. She was lovely)
Marion Cotilliard for Nine (feels like a supporting role, but the studio is pushing for lead)
Maggie Gyllenhaal for Crazy Heart (same)
Saoirse Ronan in The Lovely Bones
The Golden Globes should help figure this out, because some interesting things will happen in the comedy/musical category. Bullock should expect 2 Globe noms this year (Drama for Blind Side and Comedy for The Proposal, although I really think they should reverse the categories. I didn't laugh once during The Proposal and Blind Side looks totally fuckin hysterical. I'm hopeful for a Zooey Deschanel nom for (500) Days @ The Globes, but don't think that will get her the Oscar slot.
Ultimately, the Bullock argument makes the most sense to me at the moment. Blech.
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