Bullock for Best Actress?

The Oscar website I love and trust the most (In Contention) has moved Sandra Bullock into their Best Actress predictions for The Blind Side.

Most people agree that 4 of the slots are already taken (Meryl Streep, Gaby Sidibe, Carey Mulligan, Helen Mirren) and that the 5th is up for grabs. For a long time, Abbie Cornish had a leg up on the competition but people overall are apathetic towards Bright Star, so her odds are waning.

Other possibilities for the 5th slot include:

Michelle Pfeiffer for Cheri (I'd like to see this happen. She was lovely)

Marion Cotilliard for Nine (feels like a supporting role, but the studio is pushing for lead)

Maggie Gyllenhaal for Crazy Heart (same)

Saoirse Ronan in The Lovely Bones

The Golden Globes should help figure this out, because some interesting things will happen in the comedy/musical category. Bullock should expect 2 Globe noms this year (Drama for Blind Side and Comedy for The Proposal, although I really think they should reverse the categories. I didn't laugh once during The Proposal and Blind Side looks totally fuckin hysterical. I'm hopeful for a Zooey Deschanel nom for (500) Days @ The Globes, but don't think that will get her the Oscar slot.

Ultimately, the Bullock argument makes the most sense to me at the moment. Blech.

New York Film Critics Circle Predictions

National Board of Review announces its winners on 12/3, but they are hard to predict and although their choices ultimately do matter (Slumdog won last year), I just can't get emotionally invested.

My predictions for the NYFCC awards, which happen the following week (12/10 I believe) follow:

Picture: A Serious Man seems like a very NY choice. I could also see Inglorious winning. It will not be Invictus, Precious, Up, Nine or The Lovely Bones.

Actress: NY went apeshit for Carey Mulligan in An Education. If it's not her, it will be some random totally outside the box person like Tilda Swinton (who have an amazing performance in the movie Julie released earlier this year).

Actor: Colin Firth in A Single Man. Jeff Bridges is winning the Oscar for Crazy Heart.

Supporting Actress: Monique, right? Although the NY critics are obsessed with their hometown darling Julianne Moore and I suspect they are gonna have a love affair with A Single Man (Best Debut Film, or whatever they call that category). The NYFCC doesn't like to be predictable and there will certainly be a Precious backlash sometime over the next few months. Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air also has a large fanbase. At this point, my favorite supporting actress of the year is Melanie Laurent in Inglorious Basterds.

Supporting Actor: Christop Wentz in Inglorious Basterds. I would bet $ on this.

Director: Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker. Would it be the first time a woman has won Best Director in NY? I believe so. This award could also go to Q.T.

Screenplay: A Serious Man or (500) Days of Summer

Cinematography: Going out on a limb with Nine. Inglorious and Bright Star are contenders as well.

David Krasner

krasner@the-mine.com

An Educated Stab at 2009 Oscar Predix

Picture

AN EDUCATION

AVATAR

THE HURT LOCKER

INGLORIOUS BASTERDS

THE LAST STATION

THE LOVELY BONES

NINE

PRECIOUS

UP

UP IN THE AIR

Actress

Abbie Cornish

Helen Mirren

Carey Mulligan

Gabourey Sidibe

Meryl Streep

Actor

George Clooney

Daniel Day-Lewis

Colin Firth

Morgan Freeman

JHal Holbrook

Supporting Actress

Penelope Cruz

Judi Dench

Anna Kendrick

Monique

Julianne Moore

Supporting Actor

Matt Damon

Jude Law

Alfred Molina

Stanley Tucci

Christoph Wentz