Oscar Predix (as of 11/29)

Best Picture

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Milk

Revolutionary Road

Slumdog Millionaire

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett in Benjamin Button

Angelina Jolie in Changeling

Kristin Scott-Thomas in I've Loved You So Long

Meryl Streep in Doubt

Kate Winslet in The Reader

Best Actor

Leonardo DiCaprio in Revolutionary Road

Clint Eastwood in Gran Torino

Sean Penn in Milk

Brad Pitt in Benjamin Button

Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler

Best Supporting Actress

Penelope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Viola Davis in Doubt

Tarai B. Henson in Benjamin Button

Marisa Tomei in The Wrestler

Debra Winger in Rachel Getting Married

Best Supporting Actor

Josh Brolin in Milk

Robert Downey, Jr. in Tropic Thunder

Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight

Dev Pattel in Slumdog Millionaire

Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road

Best Director

Gus Van Sant, Jr...Milk

Christopher Nolan...The Dark Knight

Darren Aronofsky...The Wrestler

David Fincher....Benjamin Button

Danny Boyle...Slumdog Millionaire

Critics Groups

My favorite time of year is at hand - the various critics circles and pre-Oscar awards will be announced over the following two weeks. I always have a special place in my heart for the New York Film Critics Awards - www.nyfcc.com - I tend to be in tune with their selections far more than the eventual Oscar winners and I'm eager to hear who they choose this year.  Sissy Spacek has been selected as the Best Actress 3x - In the Bedroom, Crimes of the Heart and Coal Miner's Daughter (with an additional citation as Best Supporting Actress for Altman's Three Women in 77). 

I am expecting the following films and actors to pop up all over the critics awards this year;

Best Picture

The Wrestler - If the advance word from Toronto comes true, this will be the critics darling for the year, most likely in NY, which responds best to indie grunge (see Leaving Las Vegas, Naked, 

Wall-E  - the best reviewed film of the year.  At least one of the groups is going to push it outside the Animated Category and acknowledge it's brilliance and ingenuity with the big prize.

Benjamin Button 

Best Actress

This is gonna come down to Sally Hawkins in Happy Go Lucky vs. Kristin Scott-Thomas in I've Loved You So Long (Although the Oscar is looking more like a Streep/Blanchett contest).

Best Actor

Mickey Rourke

Sean Penn

Best Supporting Actress

Penelope Cruz

Rosemary DeWitt

(I personally could be argued to award the female cast of Synecdoche, New York here but that's not really fair.  Samantha Morton, Michelle Williams, Catherine Keener, Dianne Wiest, Hope Davis, Patricia Clarkson, Jennifer Jason Leigh, Emily Watson, etc)

Best Supporting Actor

Heath Ledger

Robert Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder

or the breakout from Revolutionary Road -Michael Shannon.

I'm expecting NYC to go with Downey, for the coolness factor. Also, Heath isn't likely to show up at the ceremony.

Best Director

It's going to be a total surprise. Mike Leigh for Happy Go Lucky, Christopher Nolan for The Dark Knight, Woody Allen???

Golden Globe Comedy/Musical Predix

Now that we are deep into November, the Oscar race is intensiying, and thus GOLDEN GLOBE fever is in the air.  The Drama nominations seem to be clarifying themselves, and I will go on record with some predictions shortly.  What really intrigues me right now is the dearth of competition in the comedy/musical category.  There are a couple of films they may choose to place in this category that really have no business there; Happy Go Lucky, Rachel Getting Married and Synecdoche, New York are not comedies, but all three are critical smashes and may find themselves in some surprise categories.  I'm not counting on that, so here's what the current crop looks like;

Best Picture (Comedy/Musical)

Sex and the City

Mamma Mia

Iron Man

Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Cadillac Records

Sex and the City and Mamma Mia seem definite here and I'd venture to say SEX will win.  Other nomination possibilities are Tropic Thunder, Burn After Reading and Wall-E (but seriously, if they are gonna nominate the Pixar film outside of animation, doesn't it qualify as a Drama?).  See what I mean?

Best Actress - Comedy or Musical

Sarah Jessica Parker in Sex and the City

Meryl Streep in Mamma Mia

Tina Fey in Baby Mama (seriously)

Emma Thompson in Last Chance Harvey

Scarlett Johannson in Vicky Cristina Barcelona 

Other scary ideas include Katherine Heigl for 27 Dresses, Kristen Bell for Forgetting Sarah Marshall, Beyonce for Cadillac Records, Anna Faris in House Bunny (she also deserves a career achievement award methinks).  Oh and the winner is Sarah Jessica Parker, whereby she becomes her Oscar nomination chances start becoming realistic.  How did this happen?

Best Actor in a Comedy or Musical

Ben Stiller in Tropic Thunder

Robert Downey, Jr. in Iron Man

Josh Brolin in W.

George Clooney in Burn After Reading

Philip Seymour Hoffman in Synecdoche, New York

Tricky.  Will Smith in Hancock? Adam Sandler in Zohan?  Ricky Gervais in Ghost Town?  Adrien Brody in Cadillac Records? Javier Bardem for his incredible performance in Vicky Cristina Barcelona?  I'd put money on a DOWNEY JR. win here, although it's gonna turn out to be a very good year for Brolin (whose supporting nod for Milk looks solid).

More updates to come, if you like this....

D.